aurareturn

Fully integrated business management system.

Source?

Please don't link to Anthropic's $80b loss due to stock based borrowing.

Holy cow that’s amazing. I’d bet future apps will be built this way.

And there were people who thought Project Glasswing was a stunt.

When they run these benchmarks, they should measure false positives - because it's annoying for a real human to solve a captcha.

If blocking 1 bot request is +1 then making a human solve a captcha should be something like -100. That's how we should grade.

Probably stocks based compensation or something like that.

I do this as well and AI makes fewer mistakes and causes fewer outages than before.

They don’t build the datacenters next to your house. They build it a little further out. It brings a ton of extremely high paying jobs.

I agree. I think the days of the developer who hated talking to anyone but is still very valuable are over.

I think social skills are much more important today because one person can do so much more but this person needs to talk to many others to know what to build.

I think being anti-data centers is like being anti-nuclear, anti-energy, and pro-deindustrialize stances that gripped Europe over the last 20-30 years.

It's hard to think of anything better than data centers financed by big tech profits, profits that previously just went to buying back shares.

Even if it all crashes, we all get cheap tokens and GPUs and memory, which will jump start more innovation.

PS. This is my non-political opinion.

I think it's still too early to say China is falling behind or getting closer. We're about to enter the self improvement era and anti-distillation seems to be getting better from OpenAI and Anthropic.

I think the most likely scenario is that China limits materials needed to make chips/tech to slow down US.

Or China simply starts blockading Taiwan - especially if they can't get internal EUV machines working.

I think that was the conclusion of the author as well.

I personally think it's politics and war.

Good post.

  But another risk is that if there are huge efficiency breakthroughs, either through hardware or software/model improvements. This is what killed the telecoms boom in the early 2000s - it wasn't so much that bandwidth growth stopped, but the efficiency of fibre optics far outpaced the demands.

I'll add that I think this scenario is unlikely. I think we've see that with more compute, we have more capable AI models. The more AI chips you have, the more training you can do, the smarter the AI, the more thinking tokens you can have per task, the faster the tokens/s, the more simulations you can run with CPUs to get the right answer, the bigger the model, etc.

This wasn't nearly as true with internet bandwidth during the dotcom.

I think how the boom can end is that models hit a wall in intelligence/compute but it seems like model capabilities are increasing faster and now slowing down - particularly self improvement is on the horizon.

I think the most likely way end it ends is politics and war. At some point, maybe China will stop all rare earth exports if their models are falling behind too far. All tech products depend on China's rare earth. The other is war. Sometimes the best way to stop your neighbor's progress is to just blow up their data center.

I argued that developing those features previously would have added a ton of cost to the development.

Source for those scraping providers?

A year ago, I had the opinion that it'd be too expensive for developers to support offline mode, peer to peer, or community servers after shutdown.

Today, I don't. I think it's probably a week's worth of work with AI and 1-2 developers.

However, enforcing this law is going to be tricky. How well does the peer to peer have to work? How about off line mode? How much support does the developer provide for community servers? Is it only a one-time support?

A developer going bankrupt isn't going to be able to do too much.

I disagree.

I think the iOS App Store is going to be in steep decline in a few years. People will generally have a few apps: ChatGPT, Instagram, messaging, and something like a Photos/Camera app.

Everything else will be done in your AI app.

I've been hooking up more and more data and plugins into ChatGPT/Claude. I only want to use it. I don't want to use other apps if I don't have to. For example, research, buy, plan. I prefer not to use other apps.

I think all it takes is for OpenAI to make a phone from the ground up for this and Apple is going to have serious competition.

What’s the solution? Not use OpenAI and Anthropic and watch less idealistic peers post breakthroughs?

They said the same thing for transistor density in new chip nodes. It took 40 years of doubling every 2 years to finally hit a wall.

And although the industry hit a wall in density/area, they switched to scaling in 3D or glueing chiplets together. Moore's Law is still working if you change the definition to transistors/integrated circuit.

Yes, it's like saying the market will inevitably go up and down. Quite low value statement.

Well, that's up the OP. When is "inevitable"? Tomorrow? Next week? Next month? 5 years from now?

Then you have to clarify what "inevitable" means.

If it goes up another 200% then down 30%, would you call that implosion?

You can make billions overnight if you think it is inevitable.

I would in 2026.

As oppose to countries who pretend to be neutral or ethical but is also just business?

  Their strategy is to prevent open models from proliferating, so their massive investments in these AI frauds are not completely unwound.

This makes no sense. It's pretty clear that they want open models to proliferate as a counter to OpenAI and Anthropic dominance.

If the market is concentrated into 2 players, those 2 players will control both the models and the hardware. Both of them already have custom AI chip ambitions.

Nvidia wants open models to matter because it allows them to sell hardware to OpenAI, Anthropic, and any company that wants to run open models.

To learn, to study, to explore, to experiment, to build, to practice, to invent, to research, to advance.

To not bury your head in the sand hoping this will go away, because it won't.

That's insane advice. That's like telling CS students to never use a cloud LLM.

Sometimes HN is crazy and out of touch.

Yes. I wrote about it here in the other post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50000421#50000660

I’m frankly a bit disappointed that Tao published the blog post I linked to above.

Telling OpenAI they shouldn’t test frontier math on their internal models is just plain nuts and illogical. It’s surprising that the advanced math community can lack so much logic.

You can choose to ignore all the PRs, just like mathematicians can choose to ignore all the released papers.