amurale

I take the IFR (infection fatality rate) for age < 65, and multiply by 10 to get a worst case of IFR+long term harm. Note that we're talking about severe long term harm - such as autoimmune disease etc. Not "it took me 3 months to recover" stories.

For example, IFR(age<65) in geneva[0] is 0.0045%. multiply by 10 to include also long term harm, you get 0.045%.

[0] https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099...

You're correct about long term harm, I lumped them together. A better formula would be:

  P(covid death or long term harm) < 0.05%
  vs.
  P(vaccine long term harm) = ?

since my estimate is they're about the same order of magnitude, I prefer to take the devil-I-know vs. the small-scale-tested vaccine.

I model the potential harm based on a similarly rushed vaccine of 1976 which caused a large increase in cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome [0]. Longer trials and phase IV monitoring was instituted in response to this rushed vaccine.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak

Let's see... it's a calculus of death vs potential long term adverse effect:

P(death) < 0.05% for the vast majority of the population (Age < 65) vs P(unknown) long term harm in life quality, my wild estimate: P(0.1%). It's within the same order of magnitude.

I'd take the vaccine in a heartbeat, long term effects and all, if P(death) was 10% or higher.

  > No one developed severe Covid-19
  > No one developed severe adverse effects

(yet)

There is a reason vaccine trials normally take several years. I'll wait until we're a few years into phase IV trials, thankyouverymuch.

Something like that. Evolution = natural variation + natural selection.

In any given population there is natural variation: fastest moth, hairiest moth, whitest moth, etc. After evolutionary pressure is applied, the other moths are preferentially devoured, and the hairiest moth becomes the dominant variation with the most offspring.

For a similar historic account, read about the black form of the peppered moth which rapidly took over the moth population, caused by evolutionary pressure + single mutation in the year 1819.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36424768