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Cal is a consumer of AI - interesting article for this community, but not this community. I thought hacker news was for builders and innovators - people who see the potential of a technology for solving problems big and small and go and tinker and build and explore with it, and sometimes eventually change the world (hopefully for the better). Instead of sitting on the sidelines grumbling about that some particular tech that hasn’t yet changed the world / met some particular hype (yet).
Incredibly naive to think AI isn’t making real difference already (even without/before replacing labor en masse.)
Actually try to explore the impact a bit. It’s not AGI, but doesn’t have to be to transform. It’s everywhere and will do nothing but accelerate. Even better, be part of proving Cal wrong for 2026.
And we are profitable on our AI efforts while adding massive value to our clients.
I know less about OpenAI’s economics, I know there are questions on whether their model is sustainable/for how long. I am guessing they are thinking about it and have a plan?
AGI would be more impactful of course, and some use cases aren’t possible until we have it, but that doesn’t diminish the value of current AI.
Nobody knew that scaling transformer architecture would lead to the emergent intelligence we see today. Among other things, OpenAI did R&D for years on that. Also the only situation where this could true is if Google knew that LLMs could lead to this intelligence and decided to not make it happen, (along with every other tech company now that is furiously trying to catch up to OpenAI), which is absurd.
It’s very likely they’ll bounce back. I’d rather OpenAI continue to innovate and push the industry forward as they have been. Haven’t seen much of that from Microsoft, so heavily disagree with you there. Prefer to focus on the actual product of the company not the personalities of the people there or armchair assumptions on the vibes of the culture.
2. The heat death of the universe does not mean one gigantic black hole. I’m just a hobbyist but my understanding of the theory is that black holes will continue to form, but through Hawking radiation, they eventually radiate out all their energy until it is all dispersed, ultimately leading to uniformity across the entire universe, max entropy, where “work” can no longer take place.
(It is an interesting question then whether information is actually destroyed through Hawking radiation?)
“In the Examiner article, O’Reilly made reference to a “scam bot [that] had a blue check mark, meaning that, unlike me, it pays money every month to Elon Musk’s vastly indebted and unprofitable platform, a situation which would greatly disincentive his company taking proactive measures to weed them out”.
Is the argument here that someone is creating an army of paid accounts and spamming with them? And this is a major source of bots? Is this actually happening? I think that is probably unlikely given how expensive it would be?
In terms of error rate: gpt 3.5 had a high hallucination rate that made use cases fairly narrow. It then got faster which opened up some more use cases. Then gpt 4 came out that had a significantly smaller hallucination rate which opened up a gigantic number of additional possibilities. And had a larger context window and output size that made it significantly more useful. Then it got faster with an even larger context size… each of these iterative improvements just continue to add more and more possibility in a gigantic range of cases that have literally never existed before.
Given gpt-4 is already ridiculously useful and we’ve barely scratched the surface, it makes complete sense to me. More capacity + faster gpt responses unlocks massive amounts of more potential/use cases.
Agree though to marry being a ferocious reader / learner with being a do’er is the way to go. Personally I did not grow up with an opportunity to develop an intuition about business and self-motivated action. Has taken a lot of work to move that direction over the years.
I more or less did this for years by reading a ton of books + many years of HN / articles / interviews / videos + startup weekend events + tried starting things + coding hobby for years + enterprise consulting work, and now I’m fairly well equipped to co-lead the company that I do.
The first 5+ years of doing this I debated attempting to go to a prestigious school for an MBA, primary reason (95%) was for the networking opportunity (meeting great likeminded or driven people), (0% because I would’ve been able to tell people I had an MBA from somewhere for job purposes, the snobbery from that would have been a detriment often instead I believe), and 5% for the education which I think has value but when it’s free and I had the motivation there was no reason to pay $100ks for that. At this point this company is doing fairly well so although I would love to meet more driven and likeminded people, I’m not sure it the best path to do so anymore for me.
1. How does this perspective affect you today? Is it debilitating? Depressing? Affect your wellbeing and productivity?
2. What do you believe is the probability of what you say here? Estimate with a percentage.
Does the unknown associated to the percentage in #2 make the perspective rational and helpful?
Most initiatives are not purely good without any downsides. A principle to consider is: Just because there are some negative aspects sometimes, do those outweigh the good? In this case, how many negatives actually come from patent law? (Btw, a monopoly most often is not the result - there are often many solutions to a similar problem/need.). And consider the side of the creator (which I’ve been finding is surprisingly rare in hn) - creating a company and product is already incredibly hard, how much harder do we want to make that? What and who are we sacrificing?
Maybe we just adjust the patent law some. Decrease the number of years? I’m sure it could be better.