TobiasJBeers

This thread is a great example of how quickly “optimize X” turns into “define X” when modeling intuition meets player intuition.

The “50% time horizon” feels most actionable when you pair it with an expected-value model. For a given task: EV ≈ (human_time_saved × $/hour) − (p_fail × cost_of_failure) − (iteration/oversight cost). A model crossing 4h-at-50% might be hugely useful for low failure-cost work, and still net-negative for anything where rollback/debug is expensive. The missing piece is how p_fail scales with task length + how recoverable failures are.