Reubachi
Any inference or probability engine, be it an app or a heuristic mental process, is obviously based on categorizing historical data and literally weighing it's confidence around it to form responses.
Confidence intervals and associated indexes/logic are the foundation for most heuristic data models.
Certain models of course force this context memory, some don't, some allow you to toggle it's "trigger level".
For example Anthropic, use haiku for low memory context queries, research. Then Opus/Fable for compiling/analysis/design, which relies on the LLM inference constantly going back into context memory.
Another example is OpenAI/GPT. The "free" tier forces context memory using the "highest available model" per your subscription (or lack thereof), and upon hitting its limit, drops you down to a low context model, and then ultimatley blocking that chat entirely.
(I appreciate this discussion and am not trying to inform you, I'm sure you already know, but typing these things out helps me understand my holes in understanding.)
1. 59 million of those 60 million could be very short validity, duplicate enrollments from same private key/csr, etc. 2. I'm still not certain that that figure isn't including for example private roots/intermediates they've issued from.
That said they're a low volume (in terms of root/int) provider so I don't think the impact of them exiting will be great.
Hagerty or some similar channel had a 45m breakdown of the car with a tesla rep, and as a standalone single vehicle that can do what it does, it's a marvel. I really couldn't believe the aero effects and paneling/tightness came from the same company that last year officially "exited the car business" and sold a stainless steel half truck.
That said it's so obviousley a marketing peice/distraction. But I am thinking about the engineers who's saw this as their chance to show that yes, they can design and bring to prototype a car with the fit and finish of a ferrari prototype with the added instanity of a very impractical gas cylinder rocket system.
It is given sets of paramaters/data and infers a response based on it's acceptable confidence level. The bottleneck for this is compute power and model/prompt/rails/integrations.
The reason LLM stays consistent/can be somewhat trusted to stay on rails is that it's aware of both it's context/scope and it's confidence about the context.
Anything else would be....original thought and exposition? I guess. You could say that our brains do the same, IE; unconcious statistical analysis leading to inference based on confidence.
It's a positive in the sense that due to these industry changes (computer power going up 20x in cost.), the platforms are offering a way to let us peons play games.
It's a negative in that it's a futher commitment of these vendors to hoarde compute/GPU power from western consumers and chinese LLM vendors. MS will routinely purchase the highest end GPU for sake of keeping this service alive, nevermind their own LLM. Good luck getting one yourself.
It's hard though not to see the writing on the wall in regards to "local compute GPU availability". Every single industry even tangentially related to compute power has "silently" moved their bus model to consumption based, despite the consumer base having 0 appetite for that. (We're not engineers/app developers who are forced to use LLM agents, we're trying to pay a service that hosts games.)
I am unsure how a medium that was a failure as a free/subscription model will succeed as a floating pay-as-you-go model.
"What is happening with US Sealift command?"
"what has happened to american shipping?"
"Why are american port automations ruining economies?"
"why is "program ___" costing so much?"
Well, Sal. It might just have something to do with the leadership you voted for.
Oil demand is inflexable when considering the demand has rarely been based around refilling reserves and pricing hasn't been determined by the insurance houses. Strategic reserves are depleted across the globe, china in particular.
Even with those releases of reserves, economies/markets relying on diesel went into limp mode due to the FUD about war. For many months there was complete uncertainty about who insures the insurers. So, now these economies need to catch up. (not forgetting, the globe is still "at war" and the messaging is up and down.)
Anyways, The first priority to return to pre-war oil economy is to refill those reserves and exit limp mode. Pricing will not go down in a predictable trend until that happens, and even at >pre-war production levels, that will take decades to get back due to the "squeeze" cost.
CUrrently they're averaging, what, max 3 falcons per week, usually in test configuration?
The partnership scope calls for.....~150 launches per week, delivering payload and returning the module.
Trust me, I love space and pushing the frontier at the cost of US dollars, but that is....so significantly far away.
COnsider the boeing 737-8,9,10 MAX. That program is far, far less grandiose in it's delivery scope, has an ancient legacy OEM that is very familiar with regulated contracts w/ the gov, and they can't deliver a plane within 5 years of the expected contract completion to their premier airline partner.
I can be convinced IE; some transparent internal reporting on project lead's current understandings as the project progresses, but there just isn't any statements from SpaceX/Nasa/USGOV on what we can all see with out eyes.
I can go even further and say I trust they will be the company to deliver, given the decades long historical relationship between US Space Agencies and Vendors.
That said, 2.6 test falcon launches per week, is so, so many orders of magnitude away from "~150 full payload delivery and recovery missions per week".
I struggle to think how anyone with experience in the industry (and eye balls) thinks this is aligning with reality.
But in that vein, you are in the same position as the chinese LLM providers. They cannot get hardware to host so they put the problem in the forefront by offering it open.
In a way, Deepseek is championing your cause.
My scanwatch is beautiful, and the battery life is great. But to this day, on my 5th charger, it either charges to full in 20m, or 3 hours. Same charger, same wall outlet. Probably not great for the watches hardware.
It's a hard feeling to explain, when purchasing any "high cost" tech device, I like to think i'm a smart consumer and do my research.
Nope. This company is, for back of a better word, disgusting. Never in my life have I had to maintain a profesional relationship with support agents for sake of: -charger breaking repeatedly -Syncing breaking repeatedlty -BIometrics are completely, completely random and arbitrary compared to other professional devices. -time desync -Completely, baffling missing integrations. (I can't configure a god damn alarm?) -The big one, dynamic paywalling. Since I purchased mine, I have been locked out of the few worthwhile features that the app/device initially offered.
The scanwatch 2 is completely useless as a watch and a health device. It is marginally acceptable as a fashion device.
That is of course very very far away from reality (though, progressing to a feasable program faster than any space observers predicted.)
THat, combined with Elon signaling to investors/market that tesla no longer produces cars.....it's hard to imagine the company splitting their very, very , very over-commited engineers to a flying car. At least, they aren't commiting the point that this will be a consumer-market car, or even a halo car.
If I feed in 15 crown/root canal invoices into AI asking it it's opinion, it will tell me I have a very bad mouth. This does nothing to inform me, and will lead to the expected AI response of: "Here are some practices in your area specializing in oral surgery".
There's a reason it's advised by doctors to not share health information. practices/doctors proscribe a regimen/treatment plan, and have to assume in good faith the patient will follow it. Imagine if every doctor heard "Well, AI told me..."
But on that note, chinese companies aren't building a 10k car profitably. Their OEMs have a dizzying array of subsidies and agreements that allow "market friendly price fixing" and protection from going bust. They are very smartly playing a long game that might end up making everyone better off, we'll see.
A EU or US OEM in the same position would just not be possible from the start. -An existing one IE VW or Ford could leverage massive chains to drive down MSRP, but the public nature of the companies won't allow that for too long. -A new OEM ie "slate trucks" has gone thru this, seeing MSRP jump by 1/3-1/2 simply because decision of the then ruling party changed rebate scenario, as well as global shipping rates skyrocketing.
If I where to go EV home charging instead, I'd need to have it more or less plugged in every night. Which of course isn't a shower stopper especially when fuel savings are factored in.
But in my case the MSRP of my car+ fuel costs+ time/convenience is a slightly better experience than if I had a full EV with it's associated MSRP/convenience.
I look forward to my first EV, cuz I know I'll have a "come to god" moment where I realize how much easier/simpler charging at home is.
OF course, that shouldn't matter for most tinkerer jobs like a CarPi. But anecdotally, I tried using my old iphone 13 (idk why I tried this) and then a couple old galaxies for my car project taking data from bluetooth dongle and relaying to a custom gui I made. Of course also dealing with power cycles and screen, data trasnfer etc.
Very, very quickly it became easier to justify buying a SBC for the same project
The main reason it was/is the popular behemoth is not because of it's tinkerability, but because it got mainstream appeal and RaspianOS is polished enough for the average windows user to go "wow, neat."
THere is no "knock off pi", there are many many popular SBCs with the same performance at cheaper cost (O-Pi, arduino), not to mention the mini PC space (NUCS, ie intel asus.)
Civilian market autos are a miniscule drop in the bucket compared to heavy industry, tankers, aircraft and rail RE; consumption and demand draw.
Your posit of the mile battery bank and solar farm is certainly not "incorrect", but the tragedy of the commons and resource distrobution is a classical problem that would inevitabally lead to exactly the same situation.
Which I think makes me Neo? So at least if my company folds from AI investment fallout, I can still have a destiny.
In that light, it's not many leaps and bounds to assume that of the two, Russia is certainly "suffering" more in the grand scheme when viewed from the perspective of sunk cost fallacy. Their goal was to blitz the country in one month. 4 years later, Half a million confirmed dead, no western support, endless sanctions directly affecting the working class. That working class has been in a war economy against a foe who's GDP (nominally, no outside help considered) is 12 times smaller than it.
Naturally this is not ideal, and on the other side, Ukraine has suffered massive territory and personell loss. But having the world "behind" you and not needing to support a gargantuan economy/civil base allows them to always "spring back" more. Esp with western assistance, and especially if there is still territory to defend.
of course, all of this is moot if Russia ends up controlling ukraine. But at current pace, it will take roughly 10 million dead and 20 more years (minimum) of this form of warfare for ukraine to "fall". THat seems like losing.
A 10 percent rate on a 40k loan for a 60k mid-range SUV over 5 years is roughly 10k more in costs to the buyer. THis is the average purchase price/loan term in the US for new cars, at least.
So while a 10k increase in price due to the loan isn't comparable to a 3-6x in price in Singapore, the infinitely higher amount of consumers in US caught in this trap is directly going into the selling agent's pocket. At least in SGP, that COE entitlement cost goes to "the state".
IE; the existence of the asymetry allows for the public key to function more than just a "lock", but a much more easy to rationalize "signer attestation.
Further, I regret not eating a single fruit while there :(
That's for reddit not HN
I'm trying to imagine your painted scenario in a positive light ie; "everyone has well paying comfortable service jobs."
Do you feel that the rest of the world will just allow itself to become the "butler" of the US, so we can all make $50 usd an hour doing easy jobs? Of course not. As the dollar weakens, and imports rise, we only get skewered more, while our "comfortable service jobs" become worthless.