Manfrednotfunny

I would say 5 years.

The whole industry is now pushing through memory.

In 5 years you have either some type of explosion which willjust make all the hardware from today affordable or you have such an AI explosion, that the today hardware is written off and not efficient enough anymore that you can buy it for cheap.

In parallel, its clear that we need more memory.

In parallel models in hardware will become a thing on mass market.

In parallel everything gets more efficient. The 30B parameter model will be for sure more intelligent in 5 years than it is today.

Its not just that.

China also puts pressure on rich chinese flaunting their riches.

They have a common prosperity initiative.

Im still giving myself the illusion that tracking my sleep is doing anything relevant.

I sleep bad -> buy watch -> watch tells me I sleep bad -> win/win?

In the gym, i use the timer. But is it worth it to carry a watch all the time, keep it charged etc. for a timer? I'm considering buying a timer for the gym.

We just do'nt need a lot of tech in reality.

Tokens get cheaper and smarter every day.

This alone will lead to being able to run a fable class claude model 24/7 and potentially running something like this in parallel multiply times over.

Its not about not blaming Trump, its about making it clear that its also the fault of every US American to even allow this in the first place. Not standing up, not fightning against it etc.

You can change the temperature if you like. Have a 1000 agents being 'normal' and 10 being chaotic.

So i do care that Elon Musk is responsible for USAID shutdown. The richest man on the world shuts down human support so abruptly that he causes real humans to die.

Elon Musk, as the richest person on the planet, bought himself a propaganda platform he controls and started to finger around in democracy.

Its a lot more than 'just' CSAM.

Yes it did.

Elon Musk wasn't happy that his own chatbot was to left, so they 'adjusted' grok so often until it became mechahitler.

Zuckerburg suckt Trumps dick.

Trump doesn't care.

I don't think this will be banned in the USA

Yeah for sure you work at Grok.

Mechahitler? the lawsuite for CSAM in europe?

Learn about were you work and whom you work for...

You are only strawmanning around.

Apparently you are unable to coprehend that other peole have values.

You only mention math, coding and videogames.

They already hire and pay people with research titles for creating and solving problems in their fields.

And a lot of labs say that RL can help everywere and has plenty of way to go.

But in theory you can make an LLM A LOT faster than a human.

You can also run massive amount of LLMs in parallel.

There might be a limit to a normal LLM but not to theo everall system.

It was the american people who voted in Trump twice!

So no.

The key is machine learning.

All this massive massive massive compute can be used for different types of machine learning. Nuclear Fusion physics simulation, neural networks for every other use case etc.

I'm not sure if we needed AI/ML for breaking the memory wall.

But yeah we will see how the society will respond to more and more and more automatisation.

ML/AI/Robotics is for sure the next automatisation revolution.

Because of the current state of AI.

But the current state of AI is a very good indicator were it is going. Even if we don't achieve AGI, do you think AI in its current form will not be better in 5 or 10 years and we will have this solved a lot more/better than today?

Even with AI, you still need to design the software, test it, try it out, deploy it and scale it. An proper agentic platform still needs time to be build.

And the models need to be a little bit better and for that you want human feedback/reinforcement learning

No we did not.

LLM was invented and its just clear that this is something someone needs to build.

Why?

Because it makes just sense. You don't want an agent running on a laptop you close. You want to keep context small, you want to split up work / parallize it etc.

I'm now waiting for a while until the open source agent platform emerges and im borderline motivated to build something but i'm not doing it. He did, which is not a crime.

In a few years, it just might.

If maintenance and security is fully automated and for small changes or a small feature you will only dump some spec document into your agent platform, for sure.

I don't think this is the real reason why woman live longer than men.

Woman have a clear disavantage due to all the medical tests and medicine was/is still primarly made and tested for men physics.

yes because they are building things everyone is aware that it needs to be build.

The differentiation, experimentation etc. comes after.

We are still early on and already see things like this being created etc.

The big difference probably will be the compute use, the big players will introduce A2A stuff sooner than later, than you don't need to login into any services per webui.

I think we will also see more streamlined things, like verified actions / signed actions, etc.

Capitalism is, not LLMs.

The current istuation could be seen as just the next real frontier technology of the human race.

the problem is capitalism. Instead of leverigng it as a tool, we talk about job loss and restructuring etc. which affects real humans.

In a non capitalistic system, it might just not affect real humans negativly at all only positive

If AGI is the next evolutionary goal, its the difference between being stuck and not.

Wealth is also only relevant in a capitalistic system, which we invented. It could easily be that all other species never created capitalism and are therefore waiting for us somewere which we will not reach because we are stuck on 'wealth'.

And if we are stuck in a local minimum, it might seem that GPT-2 broke us out of there.

I'm running big k8s cluster and my small ones at home for 8 years, never had an etcd issue.

Could you elaborate?

Seems to be true, but also seems hard t obenchmark with max having more GPU cores too.

Memory bandwidtih between pro and max is double. 300gb/s vs. 600gb/s btw.

I did, it started to become too much work to run it well due to all the spam :| (even with the right signatures and configs, until you learn what a blacklisted ip is and that ips need some time of 'positive history' and what not.....)

But at least with your email, you had to trust only one company, as shitty as it is.

Separation of concerns was also easy.

Now with OpenRouter, you just might by accident, send your whole context to just everyone because OpenRouter just routes to different models and you might just switch around between some free model, the good one etc. And it is always the whole context.

My current image from a MoE is that the base/core might be the more generic thing and that things like python are part of one expert though.

I don't thinnk just MoE will solve it. If you hit constantly different expert layers, you can't outsource layers efficently and have to swap it in.

MoE will be faster because it will read less memory for sure, you still have to have it though.

I'm waiting for the speed/quality per dollar metric to go down a little bit further and then I will def run it at home.

Its not just that you send a sentence to an API endpoint, you always send EVERYTHING to that agent as a context.

You want to analyse your spending history? You now send everything to someone.

Either no one cares but understands this implication on how easy it is to really capture you or no one really things about it.

But i'm a lot more diligent on what I send. I disabled the gemini activity feature for example because google started telling me that my stuff could be reviwed by humans.