JacobAsmuth
My thought is that any competition to Anthropic is going to need to actually have the compute to serve all of Anthropics customers. Chinese labs certainly do not. It seems to be the crux of all these compute agreements.
Even then, Anthropic has the luxury of knowing exactly what hardware (even what datacenter!) will serve their models. This gives them the ability to co-design their model for the exact chips it will run on, something that Open Weights models are completely unable to do - even to the point that Deepseek fully open-sourced their inference engine, revealing that they're still running on only H100s and Huawei Ascend chips (https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepInfer/blob/main/README.md).
Anthropic will be running their 2027 Opus and Fable models on Vera Rubin, a chip which produces tokens for about 1/100th the cost of the H200. Seriously. 100x more efficient on GLM 5.3: https://inferencex.semianalysis.com/inference/glm-5-3 compared to what DeepSeek is able to use for inference.
Combined with Kimi K3.1's underperformance I'm honestly not too bullish on Chinese AI being able to catch back up. As an example, according to https://artificialanalysis.ai/, Kimi K 3.1 would need to be run 10x cheaper than its current inference cost in order to hit the Paraeto Frontier (matching 6.1 Sol Medium)
Personally I am of the option that AI conversations actually supply a MUCH richer signal for advertising, over a full conversation you could imagine an AI model querying the user to better understanding their desire and then offering them the perfect ad. The impression/click ratio could easily go much higher than traditional web search. But of course this is a new style of ads-bidding and a new interface, I am not surprised it takes time. Personally, would I bet against Google, of all companies, being able to show ads on an interface where users type in what they want and an AI gives them back links? Not really.
"On average, each result used three hours of ChatGPT Pro thinking compute with that model. Over the course of the evaluation, the model was posed approximately 4,000 problems. Aggregating the output into result families and manuscripts and requiring an appropriate level of significance led to the catalog outlined above."
I will note that this includes the Quasi Riemann Hypothesis. The model that solved NS was significantly dumber and less efficient that OpenAIs more recent math-models and you shouldn't over index on "it's expensive now". AI has advanced so quickly that your <2 month old opinion is out of date by 5+ orders of magnitude!
OpenAI seems to be in a much tougher spot and I'm not sure how they'll fare in the future.
But honestly, neither of those really matter to me and its why I didn't mention them in my above comment. Anthropic + OpenAI revenue is ~$120B/yr, and even if those companies go to zero because open models commoditize their business model, that demand for inference isn't going to go away, someone will need to absorb it. In fact I would expect that an open model good enough to drive demand for Opus 5.5 all the way down to zero would be so good that inference on that model would drastically exceed what we're seeing. I'm more concerned with one layer up, the datacenter builders and the semiconductor companies, and there I see fortress balance sheets, great governance, and massive demand. Open Models are great for these companies, not a threat at all. I don't see any credible threat to AWS+Azure+GCP datacenter buildout not paying for itself.
Operating cash flow of $3,929M and $482M of CapEx gives $3,447M of Free Cash Flow in H1 2026
2. Burry has repeatedly made claims about semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturers that even the most rabid anti-ai industry expert would tell him were false. He also has made dozens if not hundreds of predictions of impending doom that simply did not come true and in fact had to shutter his fund last year due to massive losses.
Operating cash flow of $3,929M and $482M of CapEx gives $3,447M of Free Cash Flow in H1 2026
Operating cash flow of $3,929M and $482M of CapEx gives $3,447M of Free Cash Flow in H1 2026
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026...
Operating cash flow of $3,929M and $482M of CapEx gives $3,447M of Free Cash Flow in H1 2026
No one serious cares if there's a bubble in the stock market because the financials are solid and when those play out then whatever "bubble" you imagine exists today will be small compared to realized revenues in a few years.