Denzel
Uhm, no. The OP makes specific claims wrt to AI and financial payoff; you offered up a case study, with incomplete data, as possible evidence that AI is generating these financial payoffs. I'm asking questions to uncover the data necessary to reconcile your case study against the actual claims from OP.
> Even if they were FTEs, it would mean the consultants could do ~3x the work.
Could. But again, are they? That's the whole point of Apollo's claims: people keep saying AI can or could increase capital efficiency, but it's not showing up in any actual financial results.
You're extrapolating a 3x increase in throughput from the optimization of a single process that exists in a whole business system. Given your background, I don't think I have to explain to you why that doesn't make sense.
Also, do we think the S&P 493 is so incompetent that they'd miss these optimizations? Or is it more likely that this firm you're referencing is a small inefficient player, and the S&P 493 already realized these efficiencies decades prior without AI?
Are the consultants delivering more billable hours per person now?
All sorts of reasons why the answer to that may be: no.
Believe it was Lucius.
Right, and for some reason that "trillion dollar" company with mathematicians on staff didn't "look into" their own results. Almost like they don't care about engaging with the actual community they're dumping on.
The hours-long hike back through the desert in the dark of night though, kinda scary. Felt like we were walking on Mars.
> We managed to swing a couple of the county commissioners who were in favor of it before and were not in favor of it after hearing about the constitutional issues as well as the cyber security issues that flock doesn't really care about.
Do you not see the problem here?
Pasco County has a $2.2B annual budget. These county commissioners have the financial resources, organizational access to expertise, and time to focus on these problems.
Do they really need an under-resourced citizen to inform them about the constitutional issues after deployment? And then they just say “Aw shucks, whoopsies, now I see the light.”
I don’t think it’s fair to call this learned helplessness (a lingering belief after the threat has vanished) when we’re facing off against an active, persistent adversarial threat.
Your county commissioners didn’t make a “whoopsies” when they took a deliberate, informed action against your interests.
Furthermore, it’s unsustainable to require citizens to pour significant time and energy into forcing their representatives to faithfully represent them. That quite literally defeats the purpose of a representative governing body.
He goes on to specifically discuss how unrealistic $100B by 2029 is given that OAI is structurally unprofitable.
The fact that you’re skewing your misinterpretation of what he said so much shows your own bias I’m afraid.
> I feel no more entitled to exclusive use or credit for my ideas as used by AI
Do you feel you have the right to decide whether to exchange your ideas or not?
> if I had talked to someone at a conference who went on to be influenced by my ideas to do something good after forgetting my name.
Yes, you’ve decided to share that information freely with that person. Do you decide to share every idea or thing you do for free with everyone? Why or why not?
> The prospect of all human ideas accumulating inside a machine that makes these ideas accessible
Right now, this idea of “a machine” is trending towards private ownership — an extractive process that does not incentivize further contribution.
Accessibility is no longer determined by you, you don’t have a decision point on the production side (deciding whether to share) nor the consumption side (guaranteeing access). We might even say your rights have been reduced.
It should be obvious to see how a healthy society is built upon value _exchange_ over _extraction_. Extraction typically leads to destruction… by definition.
Amazing how many software engineers don't do this and continue to fool themselves into thinking they're faster with AI. If only more people would track and reflect on their time use.
You’ve condensed down a lot of concepts I learned through research and trial-and-error over my career as a SWE.
Thank you for sharing Faza. Please continue putting in the effort and sharing these essays!
Even that $1/Mtok provided by Together AI is heavily subsidized by more than $1B in VC money.
This makes it unclear how the true cost curve is progressing. It’s not possible to confidently comment one way or another on the rate that cost is coming down when the entire industry is so heavily subsidized.
Simple test: can they get their hands on a data center contracts and financials?
Search isn’t anywhere near as high profile as the profitability of AI inference, and yet, even aspects of the Search org were walled off from the rest of the company such that other employees couldn’t see what we see.
As you move up in comp, the market actually gets more difficult, not just because the market is more competitive but because some companies won’t even interview qualified engineers with FAANG on their resume because they don’t believe they can afford them.
So I can understand why you might have an easier time compared to other engs.
Your first two quotes are about targeting in the Iraq War; specifically how the breakdown in careful analysis, precipitated by the new systems, led to the exact mis-targeting they were trying to solve. That’s what the entire article is about.
And your third quote is from an ex-official commenting on the event after the school strike happened.
These quotes contradict your original point, ie they show how careful analysis has been designed out of the system.
> We killed young kids, but not on purpose. We targeted a building and intent matters. I refuse to believe anyone in the decision chain would move forward if they believed kids were going to be killed. If you do - how can you? Why would they?
This sounds incredibly naive. For starters, plausible deniability due to diffuse responsibility is a thing.
“Of course we don’t target schools and kill children, this was a system error.” But the message gets sent regardless and meanwhile we have people arguing back-and-forth over grains of sand because they took an action with deliberate plausible deniability.
For a historical analog that involved killing US children “unintentionally”, you can read up on the Ludlow Massacre - https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/rockefe...
Of course they didn’t intend to kill the children, they only intended to disperse the strikers by setting their tents on fire. It was simply a mistake.
EDIT: The irony that GP then goes on the quote TFA and not NYT.
Do you also believe this administration will ever officially confirm Renee Good and Alex Pretti were not domestic terrorists?
It’s hard to interpret your points charitably here.
> An ongoing [United States] military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.
> there was precisely one mis-strike in 1000s of sorties
How did you verify this? Because I’ll remind you, the U.S. administration denied responsibility for some time before owning up to this due to public pressure. Absent public pressure, I guess we would’ve had zero mis-strikes.
> so this already is a low error rate
As a father of similarly aged daughters, I can’t express enough how grotesque and disturbing the term “error rate” is here.
We targeted and killed young children. Plain and simple.
> However, you have made a very, very strong assumption that these targets were not carefully evaluated.
Let’s take the opposing assumption that this target was carefully evaluated then. Please reason through the implications now?
It’s certainly cool, but the optimizations are so basic that I’d expect a performance engineer to find these within a day or two with some flame graphs and profiling.
> This crate was developed with the assistance of Claude Opus 4.5 initially to answer the shower thought "would the Braille Unicode trick work to visually simulate complex ball physics in a terminal?" Opus 4.5 one-shot the problem, so I decided to further experiment to make it more fun and colorful.
Also, yes, I don’t dispute that human written software takes iteration as well. My point is that the significance of autonomous agentic coding feels exaggerated if I’m holding the LLM’s hand more than I have to hold a senior engineer’s hand.
That doesn’t mean the tech isn’t valuable. The claims just feel over exaggerated.