News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
[dead]
Re:Effective altruism and the current funding situation by lkbm on Tuesday May 10, 2022 @04:44PM (#31332455)
> wasn't one of their initial proposals that deworming medications should be sent to rural Africa

Yes, and it's heavily funded by EA givers (yours truly included). People like to harp on the weird edge-cases, but Givewell.org is directing hundreds of millions of dollars per year[0], and it's pretty much entirely things deworming, malaria prevention, etc.[1]

If you visit effectivealtruism.org you'll see it's not a bunch of articles about AI research. It's about convincing people to donate in ways that have the most positive impact, and includes a big "What has the effective altruism community done?" section that's mostly the standard "ensure everyone has food, water, basic healthcare, etc." The key is that there's an emphasis on making sure you're actually improving those metrics as much as possible, rather than whatever has the flashiest marketing.

There are a bunch of people talking about AI safety and other weirder things, but we mostly just look at research to figure out what improves lives and do that.

[0] https://www.givewell.org/about/impact

[1] https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities

Re:Effective altruism and the current funding situation by DrRobinson on Tuesday May 10, 2022 @04:34PM (#31332312)
> other than getting people to donate

If that's the most effective way of helping people, why would they not do that? They do more than that though, they fund projects of many different kinds. They also coach people to go into fields where they can have a positive impact for example.

> wasn't one of their initial proposals that deworming medications should be sent to rural Africa, for its disproportionate impact it could have?

They have different funds:

- Global Health and Development Fund [0]

- Animal Welfare Fund [1]

- Long-Term Future Fund[2]

- Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund[3]

Deworming would go under "Global health and development" (if it's estimated to be the most effective) and AI under "Long-term future fund".

---

0. https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/global-development

1. https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/animal-welfare

2. https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future

3. https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/ea-community

Re:Effective altruism and the current funding situation by Max_Limelihood on Tuesday May 10, 2022 @10:28PM (#31335194)
Yeah, and there’s also GiveWell. Probably 80% of EA money goes to development, with the rest evenly split between the other three cause areas.

I’d be very shocked if AI research got more than 5% of EA funding.

Re:Effective altruism and the current funding situation by joshuamorton on Wednesday May 11, 2022 @01:48AM (#31336237)
Per GiveWell's website, around 3.7 million has gone to LTFF since 2020, 6.5 to the animal welfare fund, and 14ish to GH&D. So it's more like 15%, and the majority of the LTFF funding is what I'd describe as "self-dealing", in that it's almost all money to fund members of the EA/longtermist community for thinking about things.

(I should note, I donate a decent sum to GiveWell each year, though only to the Global Development fund, and it deeply irks me that they don't put some of their effort into innovative ideas to combat climate change)

Re:Effective altruism and the current funding situation by PoignardAzur on Tuesday May 10, 2022 @05:02PM (#31332683)
> they're actually doing is researching the dangers of AI and other neckbeard concerns that have nothing to do with the problems and sufferings of actual human beings today.

This is really the kind of comment I'd like not to see on HN.

"Neckbeard concern" implies that... what, people worrying about AI risk are worrying for fun? Because they're socially awkward nerds disconnected from reality?

This reminds me of https://xkcd.com/743/

Worrying about the future consequences of incoming technological developments always looks like "neckbeard concerns" until it's too late to do anything about it.

And thus he we are, worrying about climate change and supply chain sovereignty and corporate control of information and wondering why nobody took sensible measures 20 years ago.

> And there's no mention of anything this org has actually done to help anyone, other than getting people to donate

Note that this is an internal post from an individual suggesting organizational changes, not an official public-facing communication.

As sibling comments pointed out, they do have posts listing success stories.

Re:Effective altruism and the current funding situation by zerocrates on Tuesday May 10, 2022 @07:43PM (#31334070)
My concern about effectiveness about the "AI safety" stuff is that it kind of sidesteps the whole effectiveness analysis: if you're nominally working on risks you claim to be existential or apocalyptic, then the work is almost automatically "effective" even if you don't do anything really, just because the risk is so big that an infinitesimal decrease amounts to massive impact.

I'm sure just because of the nature of the movement there's been lots of thinking about the likelihood of various future scenarios and accounting for this in less flippant terms than I've just described it, but it seems to me that this is a group of people who are skewed to think AI is more likely, more potentially dangerous, and more interesting to work on and fund.

Putting aside the likelihood of AGI materializing at all, it's not really clear to me that paying for a bunch of research on this necessarily affects the actual AI that would be produced anyway, as that's being done by different people with different interests and incentives. You see people discuss the numbers of people affected by something like malaria prevention versus eventual extinction at the hands of AI as a justification for the need for AI work, but less talk about how we actually know what kinds of things we can do to do malaria prevention and really not so much the AI stuff. Obviously you have to start somewhere but...

From an outsider's perspective, the whole area just kind of feels like a pit you can throw money into while pretending you're being rigorous about spending.

Re:Effective altruism and the current funding situation by Max_Limelihood on Tuesday May 10, 2022 @10:43PM (#31335300)
This is a perfectly reasonable concern/criticism and one that plenty of EAs make. Going off funding, which is overwhelmingly directed towards global health and development, it’s probably one that most of them agree with. It also aligns with my experience talking to EAs, who mostly don’t work in or donate to AI.

But this is a criticism about effectiveness made within an EA framework. It assumes the thing we want to do is maximize the amount of good we do with our resources, and provides rational arguments for why AI won’t do that.

The AI folks think their cause is the one that does the most good, and they have rational arguments for that position. That’s why they’re considered part of the EA movement (despite not fitting in with the original vision).

That also means we have to listen and provide counterarguments before we reject their position. What we definitely shouldn’t do is write them off as “neckbeards” just because they’re working in tech and have unusual concerns. That’s how you end up writing off some 1930s physicist worried about the existential risk of nuclear fission weapons as some “Weird neckbeard nerd.”

Re:Effective altruism and the current funding situation by bpodgursky on Wednesday May 11, 2022 @12:07AM (#31335735)
The concern that EAs have about AI alignment is that there is practically no satisfying theoretical framework right now for how to build "safe" AI, and that's kinda concerning as we approach human-emulating AI (at least in the realm of chatbots, art, writing...)

There are hotfixes people add on for edge cases like "don't label people as gorillas" or "don't say certain words that Nazis say", but for problems like "don't ever initiate a conversation likely to cause someone to commit suicide"... there's no foundational work (that's not super vague) that compels an AI to optimize for human success and life.

That's not great IMO, and we should probably dedicate as much money to it as we dedicate to, I dunno, potato chips ($65 billion a year in the US IIRC).